Musings on Maputo

For a country with an AK-47 on its flag, Mozambique has been remarkably peaceful since the end of its bloody civil war in 1992.

The East African country, whose coastline - longer than the U.S. Eastern seaboard - stretches from Tanzania to South Africa, is blessed with remarkable beaches, lush jungles, and mineral riches.

But, not all is well in Mozambique. A simmering political conflict between the long-ruling FRELIMO party and the opposition RENAMO party has in recent years begun to boil over, resulting in political assassinations and armed warfare in the center of the country. The country appears to be on the brink of another civil war, as the REMANO party refuses to accept the results of the 2014 presidential election, which was once again claimed by FRENAMO.

The economic situation is no better. Despite a blistering 7% per annum GDP growth over the last 20 years, average GDP per capita is $525, and Mozambique remains one of the poorest countries in the world. To make matters worse, the recent discovery of $1.5 billion in secret loans has sent donors fleeing, and the currency tumbling.

But all those things seemed far away as I snacked on salmon maki and sipped a Hendricks G&T at Dolce Vita, one of the breezy indoor-outdoor establishments in Maputo's downtown. Too far away.

My companions were not fellow expats; they were Mozambicans, working for a mix of government, the mining sector, and development organizations. All around us, the city seemed to be thriving, but not in that manic, chaotic throttle that exemplifies the unconstrained growth of many African capitals. Maputo seemed... mellow.

Absent was the crush of people, the mashup of cars, mopeds, bikes, pedestrians, and cows on the roads. Instead, wide, leafy boulevards stretched towards beautifully restored colonial buildings and beaches lined with high-rise hotels.

In the evenings, DJs would transform old courtyards into dance clubs and art shows. Well heeled customers would sip drinks at art deco-inspired cafes.

But as soon as I left Maputo, the sidewalks and electricity melted away, and I was back in the more familiar rural Africa. Huts with tin roofs, chickens, women carrying buckets on their heads with water from the stream or well. The picture below is from Manhiça, a district considered to be comparatively wealthy, largely due to the presence of a major sugar company that has brought employment and other economic benefits.

Don't get me wrong, African capitals are always more developed than the countryside. But, I have never seen such a stark contrast. Other cities I've been to - Dar es Salaam, Addis Ababa, Dakar, Ouagadougou, Kigali - have all of the Dolce Vitas, high rise hotels, and fancy clubs. But, those places exist side by side with slums and congestion, down dirt roads and behind chaotic night markets. Granted, I never made it to Maputo's townships, but my relatively thorough explorations of downtown yielded little other than pleasant calm.

So, what gives?

My companions offered two general assessments of the situation: one related to geography, and the other related to corruption.

The geographic argument comes from the somewhat unique placement of Maputo: the capital city lies at the very southern tip of Mozambique, more than 3,000 KM (and a 40 hour drive) from the northern border of the country. The two largest cities after Maputo - Beira and Nampula - are a 16 hour and 27 hour drive up-country, respectively.

Johannesburg, South Africa, on the other hand, is only a 6 hour drive, or a 45 minute flight.

So, my friends posited, Maputo is relatively isolated from the rest of the country, but closely connected to its wealthy neighbor to the South. Money, by way of tourists and business interests, steadily trickles up from Johannesburg. So does influence and investment. But due to a lack of infrastructure (both physical and financial) inside of Mozambique, that money never makes it past the capital.

The other reason is - sadly - more obvious: like many African countries, Mozambique is notorious for its corruption. The "super rich" capture the lion's share of Mozambique's impressive 7% GDP growth, and never allow it to trickle down to the poor, or out of the capital. There appears to be no middle class.

Analysis have offered a multitude of suggestions for how to make sure the supposed trickle-down effect actually trickles: the development of SMEs, support for local doctors/lawyers/professionals, protection against overly-aggressive foreign investment. Many are pinning their hopes on the natural gas deposits - 180 trillion cubic feet worth - that have been recently discovered off the coast. The combination of this discovery and the country's hefty coal deposits has recently given rise to a stampede of foreign investors, including Exxon Mobile to Rio Tinto.

In what would be the country's largest extractives deal to date, U.S.-based Anadarko Petrolium Corp. is poised to sign a $15 billion LNG deal with the Mozambican government. To put that in perspective, Mozambique's entire GDP in 2015 was $14.7 billion.

It's hard to tell what will come next for Mozambique. Will it avoid the resource curse, and find a way to bring development outside Maputo's city limits, or will it succumb to the fate of its resource-rich neighbor, DRC? Will foreign investors manage to do business responsibly, or will they rob the country blind, enriching only the elites who made it possible?

Sitting at the cafe with my new friends, listening to them describe their plans and dreams, it was hard not to be optimistic about Mozambique's prospects. Whether their - and my - optimism comes to fruition, remains to be seen.